Ray,

I like your points here and I'll try to work them into the articles I write on the topic as I go. Broadly speaking:

1) Yogi Berra is wise, and for that reason I won't be trying to predict who will win. I may make some guesses about who is being overestimated or underestimated, but I'll try to be measured about them. Arrogance does not pay off in my profession.

2) I should be able to find data to test whether this actually happened with the polls. I wasn't following them in 2022, so I don't know if the overestimation happened in the polls themselves, or if it was just the pundits crowing because they believed the situation mirrored previous, similar situations in history when there was a massive partisan backlash in midterm elections (like in 2018).

3) No argument from me on this point. But do indulge me as I try to spend some of my action points on untangling a thorny statistical problem that has vexed the country since 1939. Everyone needs a puzzle to solve in their spare time.

4) I am in favor of karma. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

5) See #4. I've known a few abusive shitbags and prefer a world where they lose. But also, whatever their numbers, for the sake of their spouses I hope this is a rare occurrence.

James